Posted in Affordable Care Act, BCRA 2017

CBO Weighs in on Trumpcare 3.0

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

The non-partisan Congressional Office weighed in today on the impact of the Better Care Reconciliation of of 2017 as amended and rebranded as the ‘Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act’.

Their summary notes the coverage impact as follows:

  • The number of people who are uninsured would increase by 17 million in 2018, compared with the number under current law. That number would increase to 27 million in 2020, after the elimination of the ACA’s expansion of eligibility for Medicaid and the elimination of subsidies for insurance purchased through the marketplaces established by the ACA, and then to 32 million in 2026.
  • Average premiums in the non-group market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by roughly 25 percent—relative to projections under current law—in 2018. The increase would reach about 50 percent in 2020, and premiums would about double by 2026.

On the fiscal impact the graphic lays it out below:  For a complete CBO report, click here

Posted in Affordable Care Act, health insurance reform, health reform

Senate GOP Health Reform Fail: Many Knew This Day Was Coming

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

Unlike many in the conversation on social media including the likes of Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and blogs such as ACO Watch, I have been active in the health reform exchange of ideas since registering my twitter handle @2healthguru in August of 2008. My participation has been of the ‘sweat equity’ variety vs. those who are compensated for their content, curation or advocacy.

Many of us in the healthcare space (both clinical and administrative) are addicted to the industry and find it difficult if not impossible to exit whether physically or emotionally. Some commit out of a sense of missiongiving back or being of service, while others for the economic upside this vast ecosystem (which I have labeled the healthcare borg resisting any attempt to materially restrain its appetite) affords to exploit low hanging fruit from a fragmented, inefficient and unwieldy financing and delivery system. Many have personally enriched themselves via the frequent churn of asset ownership (hospitals, nursing homes, imaging centers, ambulatory surgery centers, etc.) or via niche solutions with little to no sustainable value followed by quick exits and generous investor returns.

This timing of my entry into social media was co-incident with the deliberative process that ultimately rendered unto the American public what was merged as the Affordable Care Act (ACA),

In the early days of twitter those of us active in the community spoke of the ‘addictive’ nature of twitter engagement, some even referred to this virtual community as ‘the matrix’. Bonds were formed, some of which remain intact to this day.

The ‘Fictional’ Obamacare ‘Disaster’

This morning Donald J, Trump aka the POTUS weighed in on the failed efforts of Senate GOP leadership to advance the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 as amended by Senator Ted Cruz to the Senate floor. He said:

By the way Obamacare isn’t failing, it’s failed

That this man continues to minimally misrepresent and worse intentionally lie to the American public is beyond the capacity for many to comprehend. From the American Academy of Actuaries to the Non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and multiple authorities in the underwriting to delivery space including risk bearing provider organizations and integrated delivery systems the narrative is quite to the contrary.

And where there is evidence of market instability or ‘failure‘ there is explanation including serial GOP initiatives to undermine the Affordable Care Act specifically with respect to ‘qualified health plans‘ (QHPs) listed on State run or Federally Facilitated Marketplaces (FFM) aka ‘Exchanges.’

The ‘death spiral‘ or ‘disaster‘ narrative is principally vested in the following argument:

  • Major health plans and regional players who initially developed individual market product(s), i.e., benefit plans, and associated provider networks including premiums) for these exchanges are withdrawing participation from select markets.
  • Premiums for some QHPs have increased by 100% or more on select exchanges; and
  • In some states and select counties there are no participating health plans with QHPs offered

On the face of this narrative, yes it makes sense. This market instability is unacceptable. No one can celebrate a law who’s principal intent is to expand coverage can applaud the absence of health plan participation at the state or county level.

But let’s peel back the curtain and look at the reasons for this ‘instability‘ claim. From day one of the Obama Administration, the GOP agenda was to make him a ‘one term President‘.

On the ACA given it’s passage was a straight line party vote with no support from GOP even though the health reform consideration process was an open and lengthy affair, Senator McConnell et al’s agenda was to remain the ‘party of no‘ and criticize the very model of health reform they had not long ago proffered as a public/private solution,  See: ‘GOP ACA Myths‘ where I’ve posted links to credible voices and JD Kleinke’s classic: ‘Why There Is No Obamacare Replacement — In One Picture‘. 

The bottomline is any ‘fails’ or under performance of the ACA whether enrollment projections, premium sticker shock, exchange exits or regulatory burdens have been engineered by a relentless series of sabotage efforts from defunding risk corridors, to current (see: This Blame Game Driving Up Health Insurance Costs) threats to not fund the subsidies that make QHP listed plans ‘affordable‘. And let’s not forget the big SCOTUS decision on Medicaid expansion which gave Red State Governors the ‘option’ whether to expand coverage for their citizens.

Karma?

So the ‘who knew healthcare was so complex’ remark offered by POTUS earlier this year was pure BS. I buy his ignorance of health policy and the complexity inherent in a cottage industry with a $3+ trillion spend, but what about those GOP ‘health wonks’ engaged in this process – from the ‘Senate Quackers’ (my term), i.e., Tom Coburn and John Barrasso – both politicians playing the doc card during ACA markup in 2009, or even worse one half of the GOP ‘young guns’ now Speaker Ryan who’s a budget [and by declaration health] wonk. What’s their excuse for this ‘surprisingly epic fail’?

This is a HUGE squander of the public trust!  And contrary to POTUS assertions, the GOP now has complete ownership of the chaos they’ve stoked from the beginning to this gross mis-management of the legislative process. It’s laughable that GOP are trying to pin this one on the Democratic party.

My god, wake up GOP. You ‘own’ healthcare. Fix the ACA.

Posted in Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act

What, What? ACOs Not ‘DOA’?

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

When the Affordable Care Act passed in March of 2010 and the law’s many moving parts analyzed by the ecosystem stakeholders including operators, health wonks and patient advocates many weighed in that ACOs were doomed to fail. They were just too ‘tepid’ to make a material contribution to the volume to value transformational journey. Complaints included little control over patients who ‘voted with their feet’ while ACOs bore the liability of their choices whether in upside only track vs. the downside of exposure of track two, flawed retrospective attribution methodologies and data dumps and reporting lags from CMS all handicapped the proactive management of ‘risk’ assumed by participating ACOs in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP).

Noted futurist Jeff Goldsmith captured the spirit in Pioneer ACOs: Anatomy Of A ‘Victory’ post in Health Affairs:

With over 17 million Medicare beneficiaries voluntarily choosing MA thus far, and enrollment growing at more than 10 percent annually despite three years of CMS payment reductions in real dollars, it is increasingly clear the future of managed Medicare lies in the MA program, not with directly contracted shared savings models.

Co-incident with the ramp up of the Medicare ACO cohort the private sector jumped on the bandwagon, operating with higher degrees of contractual terms and conditions freedom than promulgated by CMS to participating MSSP’s. Aetna, the Blues, United et al negotiated their version of ‘accountable care’ arrangements with participation IPAs, PHOs, IDNs, health systems, medical groups or physician networks.

Five years later, we have some important data recently reported by Health Affairs that suggests ACOs are far from the neutered enterprises many suggested and while mixed in terms of results reported ACOs have found their place in the managed competition ecosystem and are not likely to disappear any time soon.

The headline at Health Affairs is as follows: Growth Of ACOs And Alternative Payment Models In 2017.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2017, our inventory included 923 active public and private ACOs across the United States, covering more than 32 million lives (Figure 1). The increase of 2.2 million covered lives in the past year means that more than 10 percent of the U.S. population is now covered by an accountable care contract (Note 1).

As the ACO model matures, there is now some turnover, with organizations joining and leaving the model. Since the first quarter of 2016, 138 new ACOs began operation, and 46 ACOs dropped their accountable care contracts, representing a net increase of 92 organizations becoming ACOs, or an 11 percent growth.

From the nominal ACO count basis to the number of lives associated with the aggregate arrangements, this is an impressive tally for such an allegedly ‘anemic‘ model!

Now enter the Next Generation ACO Model. For details, see: Next Generation ACOs: A Deep Dive Series and Meet the Next Generation ACO Cohort.

 

 

 

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Posted in Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act, TrumpCare

Webinar: Next Generation ACO Model – Overview and LOI Information

By Gregg A. Masters, MPH

Webinar: Next Generation ACO Model - Overview and LOI Information Select link to open options forShare
Click to register!

Today marks the end to the eight year reign of President Barack Obama and the birth of the Trump Administration tenure.  Yet, so much in the health policy and reform domain remains unclear and on the come.

Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in March of 2010 the implementation of the delivery system side of the reform to restrain if not reduce healthcare spending has been vested primarily in a range of variably sophisticated ACOs and other participants in a tapestry of value based healthcare arrangements from bundled payments to patient centered medical homes and even the more risk savvy cohort of Medicare Advantage operators.

What is clear is change is on the horizon; yet just what the nature of that change will look like will probably reveal itself over the next several months and perhaps even years. For our discussion of what appears to be the emerging indicia of a ‘TrumpCare‘ chassis, Health Innovation Media principals share insights via: ‘On @PopHealthWeek: #Trumpcare What We Know @fsgoldstein @efuturist @2healthguru‘ and ‘A #TrumpCare Roundtable with @efuturist, @fsgoldstein and @2healthguru‘.

screen-shot-2017-01-20-at-1-52-24-pmClearly the era of ‘accountable care‘ and the provider organizations designed to explore and implement their local market vision of an entity that delivers accountability is not likely to come to an end as President Trump occupies the White House. In fact, though I have been deeply skeptical of the rather hollow ‘repeal and replace‘ mantra absent a material Republican replacement option, I am somewhat encouraged by the tempered optimism proffered by Ezekiel Emanuel, M.D., Ph.D., Former Chief Health Policy Advisor to the Obama Administration, to an informed audience at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco earlier this month.

Meanwhile, I doubt the Trump Administration and his HHS and CMS appointees (Rep Tom Price and Seema Verma, respectively) once confirmed will advocate for an era of ‘unaccountable care‘ with a return to unbridled to fee-for-services medicine. Thus, I bank on the continued evolution and deployment of ACOs as progressive risk bearing entities and continuing clinical integration plays. However, we shall see!

We do indeed live in interesting times!

 

 

 

Posted in Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act, health reform

The Quality Payment Program

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

In our healthcare innovation economy from the private sector to material modifications of public programs including Medicare and Medicaid there is a massive effort to identify and enable sustainable delivery and financing schema to stem the treasury bleeding and inch however incrementally towards ‘universal coverage’.CMS QPP 2

Ideological talking points opposing ‘Obamacare‘ aka the Affordable Care Act (ACA) notwithstanding, there are tangible efforts to move the needle in play while the uncertainty of a successor to the ACA remains largely ‘on the come’.

Continuing on this post ACA momentum, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid recently weighed in on the ‘Quality Payment Program‘. Acting Administrator Andy Slavitt provides introductory remarks and is followed by his CMS colleagues who provide deeper dives into the QPPs two track choices: the Merit Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) and Advanced Alternative Payment Models (APM).

To listen to the complete call we’re rebroadcasting it on ‘This Week in Health Innovation.‘ It is archived for on demand replay.

The associated deck is here, and the session transcript is here.

Original link to CMS QPP is here.

 

 

Posted in Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act

The NextGen ACO: Another Round Opens

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation has announced the results of its ‘continuous learning‘ commitment model wherein ‘field reports‘ including provider comments and open door inputs are materially incorporated into tweaks of the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) as risk is progressively adopted by participating ACOs. This ‘new round’ iteration no doubt includes ‘lessons learned‘ from the Pioneer ACO Program including the many ‘exits’ and risk downgrades opted to date.

In summary, this round is:

‘..one that sets predictable financial targets, enables providers and beneficiaries greater opportunities to coordinate care, and aims to attain the highest quality standards of care.’

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For complete information, see: ‘Next Generation ACO Model | Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation‘.

 

 

Posted in Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act, TrumpCare

TrumpCare: As the Puzzle Emerges…

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

As the Trump administration takes form via the nomination of Rep. Tom Price to ‘steward’ (or decimate) the massive bureaucracy of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) with Seema Verma nominated as Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Administration (CMS) the structural touch-points to manifest the ‘repeal and replace‘ agenda of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may be materializing before our eyes.

medscape_physician_survey2016Dr. Tom Price a Board Certified Orthopedic Surgeon (Editor’s note: the highest paid specialty per Medpage 2016 physician compensation survey and according the the Georgia Combined Board of Medical Examiners a ‘non participant’ in Georgia’s Medicaid program, with zero reported hospital appointments, publications or settled professional liability claims) and a vocal opponent of the ACA with several bills sponsored to enable ACA’s repeal and replacement is no friend of Medicare, Medicaid nor the broader ecosystem enabling the fulfillment obligations of the U.S. healthcare ‘[non]system‘.

Much of this likely health policy directional pivot can be reasonably visioned though the lens of what’s emerging as indicia of ‘TrumpCare‘ – the probable repeal and replacement option for ‘ObamaCare‘ aka the ACA.

In order to drill into what we can expect from President-elect Trump and the leadership team he’s proposed to assemble in order to drive his presumptive health reform vision we need focus on Rep. Tom Price’s historical positions and statements as potential replacement options.

The umbrella policy framework for for what may emerge as ‘Trumpcare’ begins at ‘Great Again‘ the .gov website dedicated to the President-elect’s agenda, and informed viaA Better Way (aka RyanCare) the Republican version to substitute ‘Government controlled‘ healthcare with so-called ‘free market‘ alternatives.

[Editor’s Note: At the bottom of this post we list a series of recent links associated with relevant health reform conversations].

Perhaps the most useful insights as to what is likely to survive the political consideration process is sourced from the collection of Republican authored repeal and replace proposals sourced from the historical work of Representative Tom Price.

At a June symposium organized by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Rep. Price, who serves as Chair of the House Budget Committee previewed his vision of healthcare reform with the following summary statements:

‘the ACA violates all of the principles that all of us hold dear…. accessible, affordable, a system of the highest quality and a system that provides choices for the American people – for patients.’

‘What we have put together is a patient centered plan that respects those principles. That allows everybody to have access to the coverage that they want not what the government forces them to buy.’

‘To solve the insurance challenges of portability and pre-existing and to save hundreds of billions of dollars.’

‘A few specific examples I’d like to share with you…

‘the individual and small group market – those of you who recognize or are in that area [Editor’s Note: code-speak for special interest groups including brokers, agents, MGAs and underwriters] you appreciate that its been ‘destroyed’ [Editor’s Note via essential health benefits, no preexisting conditions, mandatory MLR ceilings, removal of lifetime caps and the individual mandate] and so we want to re-constitute that market and make it responsive to patients and allow them to purchase the kind of coverage that they want [Editor’s Note: via a return to ‘junk insurance’ and ‘mini-med’ policies] not what the government forces them to buy [Editor’s Note: on the exchanges or via ACA sanctioned group health policies].’

‘Second we waste hundreds of billions of dollars [Editor’s note: estimated at a $55.6 Billion Price Tag Large, But Not a Key Driver of Total Health Care Spending] …due to lawsuit abuse in this country, the practice of defensive medicine and instead of just putting a band-aid on it, we propose a bold and robust solution that would allow physicians through practice guidelines [Editor’s note: Evidence Based Medicine, or so-called “cookbook medicine” by the AMA] to basically have a “safe harbor” [Editor’s note legal CYA] if your doctor does the right thing for a given diagnosis or given set of symptoms then they ought to be able to use that as an affirmative defense in a court of law – that’s the kind of proposal that we put forward.’

‘And third in addition the healthcare system that works for patients is one the must respect the physician patient relationship [Editor’s note: typically third party disintermediated practice, i.e. direct practice, concierge medicine, retainer or membership models] and so what we do is incentivize the highest quality of care without bureaucratic intervention. This better way, this plan right here that puts forward positive commonsense solutions for Medicare, Medicaid and for the larger healthcare arena so that we respect the principles of accessibility, of affordability of quality and of choices…’

There is so much fluff here we decided to do a deep dive on ‘PopHealth Week‘ with healthcare thought leaders and former health system and JV enterprise operators Fred Goldstein, Douglas Goldstein and Gregg Masters. We weighed in on some of the provisions of Representative Price’s tantalizing offers to the American people to deliver a viable alternative to the ACA that:

‘allows everybody to have access to the coverage that they want not what the government forces them to buy;

solves the insurance challenges of portability and pre-existing; and

saves hundreds of billions of dollars.’

You be the judge! Or as some may be recently awakening to: ‘Republicans suddenly discover that Obamacare repeal might not be so awesome, after all‘ or ‘Senate GOP Tips Its Hand: An Obamacare Replacement Could Be A Long Way Off‘.

If like me you are interested in how this unfolds I encourage you to follow the conversation on twitter via #PriceWatch and #TrumpCare hashtags.

More will no doubt be revealed! Some earlier context here and here.

Let’s drain the swamp, after all we now what works!

==##==

Trumpcare Resources c/o Fred Goldstein:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-will-trump-do-about-obamacare/

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obamacare-defenders-vow-total-war-231164

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr3762/summary

http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2016/11/09/day-one-and-beyond-what-trumps-election-means-for-the-aca/

http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/blog/2016/nov/challenges-for-president-elect-trump-and-congress?omnicid=EALERT1125198&mid=fgoldstein@accountablehealthllc.com

https://www.greatagain.gov/policy/healthcare.html

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/23/1584745/-Paul-Ryan-has-three-great-ideas-to-improve-Obamacare

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/11/our-bodies-our-trump/507131/

https://www.greatagain.gov/policy/healthcare.html

http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/blog/2016/nov/challenges-for-president-elect-trump-and-congress?omnicid=EALERT1125198&mid=fgoldstein@accountablehealthllc.com

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/23/1584745/-Paul-Ryan-has-three-great-ideas-to-improve-Obamacare

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/12/donald-trump-is-beginning-to-face-a-rude-awakening-over-obamacare/

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442120/obamacare-repeal-republicans-should-ensure-health-care-reform-bipartisan

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/11/10/5-questions-about-affordable-care-act-coverage-after-donald-trumps-election/

http://www.johnsoncitypress.com/News/2016/11/13/What-would-health-care-look-like-under-Trump.html?ci=stream&lp=1&p=1

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-willing-to-keep-parts-of-health-law-1478895339

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/speculations-swirl-around-trump-hhs-leadership-pick/430301/

https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/medical-science-policy-in-the-u-s-under-donald-trump/

http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2016/11/13/dear-mr-president-elect-about-that-ryan-plan-thing/

http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20161111/NEWS/161119989?utm_source=modernhealthcare&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20161111-NEWS-161119989&utm_campaign=mh-alert

http://www.hhnmag.com/articles/7843-health-reform-and-the-trump-white-house-implications-for-key-stakeholders?utm_campaign=111516&utm_medium=email&utm_source=hhndaily&eid=254508792&bid=1588113#.WCsKPQk6jpM.twitter

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/politico-pulse/2016/11/obama-dares-gop-on-obamacare-do-it-better-than-me-217419

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/17/13626438/obamacare-replacement-plans-comparison

http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/7-keys-to-effective-health-care-overhaul/

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442529/obamacare-donald-trump-repeal-replace-tax-cuts