Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act

The Evolution of ACOs

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH


Recently the accountable care industry’s leading ‘skin in the game‘ PPMC 2.0 aka ACOcor equivalent (think PhyCor, MedPartners, FPA Medical, et al) of our time – though Aledade’s model is anything like the pyramid scheme of the PPMC (physician practice management companies) of the 1990s, reviewed the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recent Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM): CMS Proposes “Pathways to Success,” an Overhaul of Medicare’s ACO Program‘. 

Below are key take-aways from the presentation. The entire webinar is accessible free upon registration here

I will post the Q & A thread that Farzad Mostashari, MD, CEO and Travis Broome, VP, Health Policy, respectively Aledade shared on twitter as well.

Meanwhile, here’s the gist of their analysis and message:

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Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act, health reform

National ACO Association Weighs In On Sector Performance

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

Amidst the aggressive assault on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) via an unrelenting but unsuccessful ‘repeal and replace‘ agenda, much conversation and debate in the health reform theater since Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States has witnessed considerable speculation about the probable directional vector(s) of reform. The initial source of these speculative insights have been from available ‘tea leaves‘ interpretation associated with key Trump administration appointments to craft and seed a ‘TrumpCare‘ alternative.

Trump’s first appointment to serve as Secretary Health and Human Services (HHS) was Tom Price, MD, a conservative Republican Congressman and orthopedic surgeon from Georgia. Tom Price’s credentials as a warrior against legacy Medicare and Medicaid regulations and incentives is well known, as is his advocacy for a ‘putting patients first‘ narrative.

Trump also tagged Seema Verma, MPH as Administrator of CMS who’s credentials included advocacy for and implementation of Healthy Indiana, a waiver enabled block grant to the State of Indiana, intended to introduce both flexibility and opportunities for ‘innovation‘ in their Medicaid program. While a sexy and somewhat logical idea, ie, delegate block (capped) funding to the state and let it innovate on the delivery and financing side, the results of block grants nationally including Indiana’s have been admittedly mixed.

With Price’s controversial tenure and the successor appointment of Secretary Alex Azar to lead HHS, Seema Verma remains at the helm of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and is advocating for and introduced a number of reforms to both CMS and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) operations.

Amidst the leadership deck shuffling and shifting sands of policy initiatives offered via the a series of related Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) processes, many in the ACO space have been heads down but mindful of how amended Federal policy would affect the operations and viability of ACOs active in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) and sequelae, ie, Next Generation ACO models and now the offered NPRM ‘CMS Proposes “Pathways to Success,” an Overhaul of Medicare’s ACO Program‘. 

EDITOR’s NOTE: For additional reflection see summary via Evolent Health: ‘CMS’ New MSSP Proposal: The Five “So What’s” Every ACO Exec Should Know.’

Meanwhile, ACOs are reporting results and the community is weighing in on the efficacy of the ACO model with respect to its intended deliverables, see: Farzad Mostashari, MD, CEO of Aledade recent unbundling of results on twitter, here and a recent New England Journal of Medicine piece Medicare Spending after 3 Years of the Medicare Shared Savings Program‘. 

Perhaps the most comprehensive take on the state of the industry is to be found in a recent study commissioned by the National Association of ACOs. The introduction to its Executive Summary is pasted below:

Introduction

The stated goal of the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) is to lower the rate of growth in healthcare spending while improving patient access to quality care. (12) MSSP Accountable Care Organization (ACO) progress toward this goal of achieving savings or reducing expenditure growth has proven controversial, in part because there are a variety of ways to measure savings that may generate different results. In this report, we describe the Dobson | DaVanzo team approach13 to measuring MSSP savings and contrast this with reported findings from CMS. We also compare our results to other published work.

Dobson | DaVanzo & Associates was commissioned by the National Association of Accountable Care Organizations (NAACOS) to conduct an independent evaluation of MSSP ACO cost savings.

The CMS method of measuring ACO performance is based on an administrative formula that creates spending targets constructed with ACOs’ historical expenditures that are used to determine whether they will receive bonus payments. It is problematic when this financial target setting approach is used as if it were a program evaluation. Indeed, when independently evaluating both the Pioneer ACO and Next Generation ACO programs, CMS contractors used a difference-in-differences regression approach to estimate savings rather than the CMS benchmarking methodology used to set financial targets and calculate bonuses or penalties. (14,15).  The CMS benchmarking methodology addresses the question “How has ACO spending changed compared to prior years’ spending?” While this may be an appropriate way to set performance benchmarks, it produces a biased estimate of program savings when compared to what may have occurred in the Medicare Fee-for-Service market had the ACO program not been in place. Instead, evaluation of program savings should incorporate a carefully designed comparison group or counterfactual to account for prevailing trends in order to address the question: “How have ACOs changed expenditures compared to other providers not participating in the ACO program?”

Read the complete report from National Association of ACOs, here

Florida Association of ACOs - FLAACOS

Given the release of the NPRM and the October 16th deadline for comments with an expected ‘go live’ date in early 2019, the Florida Association of ACOs (FlaACOs) upcoming annual meeting in Orlando is a timely event to compare notes and process the impact of CMS’ proposed changes with your peers.

For those of you in the Southeast with an interest in ACOs or valued based healthcare models and their performance in the greater Florida market, take note the Florida Association of ACOs (FlaACOsconvenes in Orlando, October 18th and 19th for their fourth annual meeting.

This year’s impressive faculty line-up and agenda include a keynote presentation by former Health and Human Services Chief Technology Officer Todd Park

For the 4th year in a row, Health Innovation Media, publisher of ACO Watch, including Fred Goldstein, President, Accountable Health, LLC and me will be onsite interviewing keynote faculty and select participants at the FlaACOs conference.

A video recap of last year’s gathering is here, as are two recent interviews with Farzad Mostashari, MD, CEO Aledade, and David Bjork, CEO, Commonwealth Health Advisors.

Wednesday, September 12th at 3PM Eastern, 12 Noon Pacific, we chat with FlaACOs CEO and founder Nicole Bradberry on PopHealth Week.

Join us!

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Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act

On ACOs and their ‘Stealth’ Upside via @Farzad_MD CEO @AledadeACO

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

For those of you not on twitter and not following the former National Coordinator for HealthIT and now co-founder and CEO of ACO ‘Management Company’ Aledade, Farzad Mostashari, MD, I’m pasting his rich thread on ACOs and the prospects for its near term future as a tool in the healthcare finance and delivery arsenal. Conventional wisdom is and for the most part remains that ACOs are a ‘mixed bag‘ of predominantly ‘upside only’ (gain sharing), HMO-lite value based healthcare initiatives under the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) with at best mixed results on projected savings (variably calculated) to the Medicare Trust Fund.

Recently, CMS Administrator Seema Verma upped the value based transitional ante accelerating ACO movement into ‘risk’ issuing the Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) “Pathways to Success,”  see ‘CMS Proposes “Pathways to Success,” an Overhaul of Medicare’s ACO Program‘.

NOTE: For additional context on the thread offered by Farzad, check out: Founder and CEO of ACO Management Company Weighs in on Regulatory Uncertainty‘.

Posted Thursday, August 30th 2018 by Farzad Mostashari, MD  @Farzad_MD

1/ 2017 #MSSP#ACO Results! ACOs have scaled rapidly across the country! In aggregate, the 472 ACOs were accountable for nearly 9 million Medicare beneficiaries and $95 Billion – that’s a quarter of all fee for service, and almost half of the entire Medicare Advantage market.

2/ If you add up all the actual costs versus benchmarks, these 472 ACOs were collectively $1.1B under their benchmarks (more on whether that’s the right counterfactual later). Medicare shared $780 million in payments with the ACOs, netting the taxpayer $313M.

But wait! There’s lots of evidence that the benchmark underestimates the savings produced. @JMichaelMcW et al have shown convincingly that a true “difference in difference” approach would show substantially higher net impact. The green eyeshades folks at CMS OACT said add 60%.

3/ So that means that the best guess for MSSP savings is actually $1.75B in 2017, with Medicare paying out $780M (45%) – not a bad deal for the taxpayer!!! That does NOT count savings that come from lower costs to the taxpayer from Medicare Advantage rates that are And on quality – the average ACO earned 92% on their quality scores- and the scores improve the longer you are in the program according to the ACO Rule’s Regulatory Impact Assessment. 

4/ Here’s how the CMS actuaries put it:

And on quality- the average ACO earned 92% on their quality scores- and the scores improve the longer you are in the program according to the ACO Rule’s Regulatory Impact Assesment. (The Aledade average quality score applied was over 95%, and as high as 99.8% #GoKANSAS)

farzad aco data quality

6/ Lemme say that again…. ACOs saved Medicare over a Billion dollars in 2017. Cheaper than FFS, cheaper than MA. And they did it without cutting payments to doctors or narrow networks And they did it with higher patient quality. That’s called delivering what was promised.

7/ the Track 1 ACOs more than held their own here Best guess is that Track 2/3 generated 190M in savings (w 60% spillover) and received $95M (50%) Track 1: $1.5B in savings, $685M in payments (44%) (I’m still a believer in moving to 2-sided risk to help weed out ACO squatting).

8/ You know what was a great investment? Giving small and rural physician-led ACOs an advance payment to help them invest in infrastructure and setup costs. It was critical to the success of several of our @AledadeACO. More commercial payors should do this!

farzad aco data49/ But what this initial release does not help us do is see which type of ACOs are creating the most value. My guess is that it’s not much different from what the CMS actuaries found for PY 2016 – ACOs that include hospitals and directly control more of the cost of care do worse.

farzad aco data510/ The “low revenue” ACOs (in the OACT analysis – less than 10% of total cost of care came to them) were only a third of the lives in the program, but generated roughly 98% of the savings. THAT is why in the ACO Rule CMS proposed letting them stay in low risk models longer.

farzad aco data611/ That was the entire thesis behind “the paradox of primary care leadership” that informed the founding of @AledadeACO That is also why @AledadeACO partners with independent physician practices, not hospitals like others do. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

12/ A quick analysis by the amazing @Travis_Broome divides these 2017 results by whether the ACOs included a “facility/CCN” (CAH, RHC, FQHC don’t count for this purpose) – Same pattern- 95% of the savings are coming from the ACOs that don’t include hospitals.

farzad aco data7

13/ Only 3.5M of the 9M ACO – attributed benecificries were cared for by the smaller ACOs that didn’t include a hospital facility- and they generated 95% of the savings. If you’re an independent practice seeing these results and the policy direction, why would you join a hospital ACO?

So how did @AledadeACO do? We are always very transparent with our results- even when things didn’t go our way- to look for ways to be better, and to make policies better that are holding back broader success. This article 2 years ago was full of pain. ajmc.com/journals/issue…

15/ This was a good year for @AledadeACO. Only 1/7 freshmen ACOs made savings – but we have learned to set expectations – it’s a long game. But 5/8 ACOs that were sophomores or older will get checks. And 2/3 that didn’t get MSSP crushed it in commercial contracts.

16/ But I’m more proud that EVERY ONE of our @AledadeACO have measurably improved health for the patients we are accountable for. We have increased wellness visits, transitional care, and chronic care management- and that’s translated into lower ED visits and readmissions.

farzad aco data8

17/ So where do we go from here? The #MSSP#ACO program has been a hugely successful motivator of nationwide transformation, but it can be reformed, and I believe @SeemaCMS is on the right track. Here’s what I would expect might change between the NPRM and the final ACO rule:

18/ The GlidePath to risk reduces ACO squatting, and brings revenue-based downside risk to MSSP, but the lowered gainshare in 1st 2 years (25%) is not enough to get new entrants and ACO investments. (as suggested) “low revenue” ACOs should get higher gain-share and lower MSR.

farzad aco data9

19/ The refined benchmarking method gives greater predictability by allowing risk adjustment and regional trending-which is great! But the cap on risk adj (3% over 5 years?!) don’t control for rising risk and introduces gaming on falling risk Instead of a cap, do renormalization.

20/ Concern about “windfall profits” led to an ill-advised proposal to cap regional efficiency at 5% – In Medicare Advantage if you are efficient, you get to keep the difference, which has spurred huge innovation in the space. why blunt improvement? 100% tax brackets are not good.

21/ Credit to CMS for trying to fix the unintended “regional comparator” problem – where rural ACO savings are reduced in direct proportion to market share. But the “national trend blend” proposal makes NO SENSE. Let’s just take ACO beneficiaries out of the regional comparison please!

22/ But the biggest impact of these results on the proposed rule should be on the idea that the way to benefit the Trust Fund is to protect it from ACO earnings. These caps, etc reduce ACO earnings – and ACO motivation/participation- and therefore reduced benefit to Medicare.

23/ The NPRM RIA estimates through 2024 these caps push $390M in lower ACO earnings, but lower ACO participation under these policies will INCREASE claims costs by $60M- and would prevent beneficiaries from receiving the benefits of the program. That’s not the right balance.

farzad aco data10

24/ The magic of accountable care is when physicians & Medicare partner together to sustainably align financial incentives, help beneficiaries and the Trust Fund. Medicare hasn’t behaved like some commercial payers who are still seeing zero sum. Let’s hold onto that partnership.

POSTSCRIPT:

As someone who’s been at the strategy table for hospitals, parent health systems, IDNs, or managed care joint ventures of all stripes AND an early adopter of this medium (I signed on to my twitter account in August 2008) believing the technology has the potential to ‘democratize healthcare’ from it’s provider centric DNA and fee-for-services fueled addiction to build ‘Cathedrals of Medicine’ separated by moats and silos from the very constituency they ostensibly ‘serve’, I’ve alternated from optimism to pessimism.

While we’ve seen some progress to date with a fair amount of co-opting, compromise and commercial exploitation along the way, I remain committed to the medium and those I follow who offer me both insights, and the connectivity to continue to refine my thought process and leadership contributions whether it be on twitter, our podcast series at This Week in Health Innovation, Health Innovation Media‘s video library,  PopHealth Week or ACO Watch blog posts. If you are NOT following @Farzad_MD or @AledadeACO, and are in the value based healthcare or accountable care space, I strongly recommend you do!

Accountable Care, ACO, Affordable Care Act, health reform

Founder and CEO of ACO Management Company Weighs in on Regulatory Uncertainty

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

It’s been a while since my last post. I hope everyone is enjoying their summer. In California we’re dealing with very serious wildfire threat. Please hold space in your thoughts and prayers for all of those in harms way – especially the first responders putting their lives on the line for people, their animals and property.

Farzad Mostashari MD CEO Aledade ACO

Today, while scanning my twitter stream, I noticed a thread by Farzad Mostashari, MD, co-founder and CEO of ACO management company Aledade.

Considering the drift we’re experiencing in the absence of health policy clarity, the former National Coordinator for Health Information Technology offers his insights via this medium to senior health policy officials including Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar and Seema Verma, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

Since the election of 2016 and preceded principally by Republican leadership bully pulpit messaging of an impending material health policy shift enabled via non-stop ‘ObamaCare is failing’ narratives – proffered by Donald Trump and echoed relentlessly by a mostly health policy illiterate Congress – we’ve been in a conflicted state as to the likely directional vectors reforming our ‘cottage’ industry’s $3.3 trillion spend in 2016 with a per capita $10,348 figure, accounting for 17.9% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product.

This is troublesome given the absence a clear path or unified agenda according to CMS:

‘under current law, national health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.5 percent per year for 2017-26 and to reach $5.7 trillion by 2026. While this projected average annual growth rate is more modest than that of 7.3 percent observed over the longer-term history prior to the recession (1990-2007), it is more rapid than has been experienced 2008-16 (4.2 percent).

In the recent survey titled ‘Third annual study of physicians and health plan executives‘ Quest Labs discloses ‘stalled progress on the road to value based healthcare, noting that 67% of health plan executives and physicians believed the U.S. has a fee-for-service healthcare system versus a value-based care system (27%).

This is noteworthy given several decades of ‘managed care innovation’ designed to advance the value based healthcare agenda. Clearly there is and has been resistance to this shift, health policy benchmarks advanced by HHS and CMS notwithstanding.

Now back to today’s timely thread advanced by Dr. Mostashari – the context for which is ACOs skittish over MSSP rule delay as CMS silence creates mounting uncertainty c/o @DB_Sweeney at Fierce Healthcare. 

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

It’s July 30, which is a hugely significant date to ACOs- It’s normally the day before the deadline to submit applications to @CMSGov for new and renewing ACOs. But the whole cycle has been delayed waiting for @OMBPress to get the MSSP proposed rule out.

fiercehealthcare.com/payer/medicare…

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

The administration has committed to accelerating the pace of alternative payment models and making improvements to shared savings programs. @SecAzar has appointed @AdamCMMi to help accelerate value-based payments. @SeemaCMS has spoken clearly about the need for reforms.

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

The ACO notice of proposed rule making was received at OMB on May 1, nearly 3 months ago! This is what regulatory uncertainty looks like, and it’s hurting physician practices and businesses who are waiting to make significant financial decisions. @MickMulvaneyOMB

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

There are thousands of physician practices who are weighing whether to move towards what congress asked them to do in #MACRA- move away from fee for service and towards alternative payment models. In many cases, physician-led ACOs are being weighed against joining the hospital.

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

There are hundreds of practices who are finishing their existing ACO contract periods and considering whether they move to 2-sided risk models as per admin pref, or drop out of the program, depending on whether the benchmark problems and unpredictability have been addressed.

Farzad Mostashari @Farzad_MD

These delays mean that ACOs will have a very short amount of time to make financially significant decisions in great uncertainty.

Every day of delay at OMB magnifies the probability of fewer physicians taking on advanced alternative payment models

That would be an “own goal”.

Recent converts notwithstanding, those of us who’ve been at this re-tooling or paradigm shift away from volume to ‘value based’ incentives – via a series of innovative delivery system models – for a while do get that ‘healthcare is complicated’. So aligning the stakeholders to move the needle from volume to value is a condition precedent in an already transformation resistant ecosystem.

Let’s keep it up and weigh in via this and other social mediums to keep the pressure on health policy leadership!

 

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Accountable Care, ACO, Triple Aim

ACOs in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP): Is There a Fix?

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

The Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform just released ‘How to Fix the Medicare Shared Savings Program‘ with lead author and long term managed health care industry veteran Harold D. Miller, its President and CEO. 

Some six (6) years into the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provisions specific to Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) the results remain mixed at best, and like the serial tweaks made to the Medicare Advantage Program, now covering some 30% of Medicare beneficiaries, the underlying ACO structural characteristics and enabling health policy regulations remain ‘on the come‘ for this still nascent and evolving delivery system model.

For the many critics of ACOs as a form of an ‘HMO lite‘ in the fee-for-services Medicare market, with none of the channeling characteristics commonly associated with HMOs, this comes as no surprise.

In this just released report, Harold Miller weighs in on the fix he sees essential for the program to achieve it’s cost containment and quality improvement objectives.  The executive summary is posted below and the full report is available here.

Executive summary:

Rather than generating savings as expected, the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) has created losses for the Medicare program for four years in a row.

Calculations by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) appear to show that ACOs with downside risk produce higher savings than the “upside-only” ACOs. However, Medicare actually spends more per beneficiary in the downside risk ACOs than in other ACOs, with no difference in quality. Moreover, ACOs that have moved to the downside risk tracks have saved less after doing so.

The risk adjustment and benchmarking formulas used by CMS can penalize ACOs that serve higher-need patients and patients living in rural areas. The greater savings attributed to downside risk ACOs may have more to do with differences in the types of patients they see than differences in the way they deliver care.

Concerns about the problems with the risk adjustment and benchmarking methodologies in the MSSP have made many ACOs unwilling to enter the downside risk tracks. Requiring all ACOs to move to downside risk could force successful ACOs to leave the program, thereby reducing Medicare savings and harming the quality of care for millions of beneficiaries.

There are other options for modifying the Medicare Shared Savings Program in order to increase Medicare savings, including dropping ACOs from the program if they fail to achieve savings after two consecutive years, reducing shared savings payments for ACOs that incur losses before achieving savings, reducing the shared savings rate below 50% for Track 1 ACOs, and/or enabling ACOs to take accountability for the specific types of services they can control rather than placing them at risk for
total Medicare spending.

Neither shared savings nor shared risk payment models solve the fundamental problems in the fee-for-service payment system. As a result, it is unlikely the MSSP will ever result in significant savings or improvements in quality, and it has the potential to harm patients by rewarding providers that withhold necessary services.

Instead of continuing to modify the Medicare Shared Savings Program, CMS should focus on implementing Patient-Centered Alternative Payment Models that provide the resources physicians, hospitals, and other providers need to successfully address their patients’ healthcare needs while holding the providers accountable for those aspects of spending and quality they can control.

Twitter Dialogue on ACO Results Reported

Today on twitter there was a representative exchange from both sides of the ACO narrative which I’m posting below for context:

MANas8U's avatar

True! Yet innovation is not cheap + anything even moderately at scale in Medicare/Medicaid is definitely not cheap. Questions while innovating: What did we learn? How can we inform our future efforts? @policywonk1

danmunro's avatar

I would argue that the evidence is already in b/c the trajectory we’re on is easy to see – and forecast. Just labeling newer efforts of ‘cost containment’ as ‘innovation’ is like rearranging (in this case expensive) deck chairs.

danmunro's avatar

But that may be the same hymnal in title only: HC Reformation I don’t think #FFS is “an addiction” that needs #ACO or #VBP rehab and the evidence that #FFS works reasonably well around the world is compelling. We don’t need single-payer, but we absolutely need single-pricing.

A Sampling of ACO Leadership on the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform Report and Associated Remedies

Our Nation’s move from volume to value based care will not occur in one day. Transformation of our complex, misaligned and disjointed healthcare system will take the hard/smart work, dedication, risk and financial support from key stakeholders, including the largest being CMS. Transition to risk based/value based care is not an option, it is a necessity not only to save but successfully advance the US Health Care system. It is easier to point out problems, than to roll up our collective sleeves and develop innovative and outside the box solutions.  – Alex Foxman, MD, FACP, CMO, President and Co-Founder National ACO, LLC

The state of Florida is a great example of ACOs having success.  I believe this is true because we already have a vibrant managed care market.  Medicare Advantage makes a lot of people money but has not proved it has saved any.  It has only served to risk adjust a population for higher revenues.  ACOs, as originally designed, may only be ‘transitional’ but they are an important step toward shifting from volume to value payment models. We should expect the models will continue to evolve.  This shift is a jog not a sprint. The goal and focus should be on the “shift” not which model and flavor is the stepping stone along the way. – Nicole Bradberry, CEO and Chair of Board, Florida Association of ACOs 

ACOs in Florida reduced expense by $365,809,069, earned shared savings payments of $178,447,886 with a net benefit to the Medicare trust fund of $187,361,183. MSSP is working in Florida! We’re concerned that the success of the MSSP is being evaluated based aggregate ACO performance which includes ACOs who are not putting forth adequate effort. I know of at least 7 ACOs that have 2 or less employees. That’s not enough effort to make ANY business model work! Unfortunately their results are tabulated with others and cause the program to be inaccurately evaluated. We look forward to the required transition to downside risk as it will require those without much commitment to drop out. If you drop the minimum effort ACOs, we expect the aggregate ACO results will look different. This is PY 2016 data… –  David Klebonis, Chief Operating Officer, Palm Beach Accountable Care Organization & Chief Operating Officer, South Florida Accountable Care Organization 

One definition of literal fantasy requires only that we accept a single non-reality, after which the rest of the story becomes quite plausible. If that be the case, Mr. Miller has written a Best Seller. His entire analysis assumes that the CMS “Shared Savings” formulas reflect reality, when those of us that have really crunched the numbers know this is far from the truth.

Intentionally or not, CMS has built significant savings for the Trust Fund into the benchmark methodologies for both MSSP and NextGen. These range from the actuarial fallacies inherent in continuous attribution, successful ACO market share effects on the “Benchmark”, National Efficiency ratios that divert Benchmark dollars from high attribution areas to low attribution areas, risk score caps, automatic “discounts” and much, much more.

Still, it seems that our Florida ACOs consistently overcome the increasing headwinds and succeed. Additionally, CMS recognizes the problems in their own Benchmarking models and has tweaked these year after year, including the latest Proposed Rule submitted by MSSP to OMB earlier this month. I fear Mr. Miller is whistling past the graveyard on this one.

For a glimpse into a few of the methodology problems, see ‘Regional Benchmarking or Regional Bonus? Sustainability in the Medicare Shared Savings Program‘. – Richard J. Lucibella, CEO, Accountable Care Options

 

A Continued Search for Answers and Business Models

Further context sourced from the Florida Association of ACOs annual conference last year was provided by Aledade co-founder and CEO and former National Coordinator for Health Information Technology at the Office of the National Coordinator Farzad Mostashari, MD here.

Weigh In

So what do you think? Please offer your thoughts in the comments section. This is a dialogue well worth a broader exchange as our industry evolves perhaps even ‘pivots’ from it’s near term PCMH or ACO roots to a the valued based healthcare model – one that many refer to as a ‘Rorschach test’ of sorts – where any projection of what constitutes a value based model will do.
Please feel free to post any resources that support your take and we’ll happily include via our social reach. If any of you are inspired to author a guest post with references of citations, we’re happy to include at ACO Watch.

 

Accountable Care

In Pursuit of the Triple Aim: Can Population Health Management Lead the Way?

By Fred Goldstein, MS and Gregg Masters, MPH

Every sector in health care is under pressure to articulate and implement a viable population health initiative that delivers on the triple aim of better health, better quality at a better cost.

Despite a significant investment of resources, we have only achieved ‘mixed results’ to date, and so the industry remains in a continuous learning mode. Although we’ve taken away some insights, we still have a long way to go.

Recently on Pophealth Week, we chatted with the ‘Dean’ of Population Health who spearheaded and continues to steward the nation’s first freestanding College of Population Health at Jefferson University in Philadelphia. David Nash, MD, MBA weighed in on the industry’s evolution — including best practices to emulate —and what near term challenges we are likely to face.

To listen to Dr. Nash’s take, click here, and for additional context checkout The Road From Volume-To-Value: The Pivotal Role of Population Health.

If you’ve worked in this space – at the strategy or operational level — you know that it can be truly daunting to implement a population health program. This can lead some organizations to shy away from attempting meaningful programs, perhaps even into a copycat ‘me too’ effort. Given the inevitable drive to value-based care, it is a strategic imperative to understand how to build and implement population health initiatives that work.

In its simplest framework, one can think of a population health program in terms of the following components as articulated by the Population Health Alliance Outcomes Guidelines Report Volume 6,  2015.

The steps of the Population Health Framework as shown in the image above include:

  • Identify the population
  • Assess the person for risk(s)
  • Stratify the person into risk levels to target for various interventions
  • Engage the person in a program
  • Intervene with specific services and resources and
  • Measure the process and outcome results

These results are then fed back into the system and the process continued all seeking to improve the overall health of the population.

In Search of Answers

One forum many look to for best practices and key insights is the Population Health Colloquium, now in its 18th year with the Jefferson College of Population Health as academic partner. Scanning this year’s Agenda, one can find presentations in each of the elements above.

Data and Analytics are the essential ingredients of any population health program with intent to identify individuals, assess them for various risks or conditions, stratify them to ensure appropriate levels of intervention and measure a program’s success.

Within the area of assessment, we are moving to an ‘N of 1’ approach given the advances in precision medicine and genomics. This exciting area will be covered at the conference in the mini summit entitled Personalized Medicine, Machine Learning and Genomics: a Clinical Approach to Employer Population Health and Wellbeing.

Payment models and the move to value-based care are among the key levers. Although there have been more than a few stops and starts along the way with the change in administration at the federal level, employers are rapidly embracing these approaches.  There are a number of presentations on this topic, including Journey to Value-Based Care — Experience and Expectations, Accountable Care Atlas: Mapping a Path to Value-Based Care and a Mini Summit ACOs at an Inflection Point: Where the Movement is Headed and Why Some Succeed While Others Don’t.

In the Intervention area, there are presentations covering ‘On the Ground: Population Health initiatives’… and we can’t forget about the patients — they, too, have a strong role to play in these efforts. The Mini Summit, Improving Patient Care and Provider Experience through Population Health Management, is timely and informative.

Community-based programs have become all the rage as we better understand the impact on your health based on where and how you live.  A breakout track entitled Population Health in the Community includes discussions on life expectancy gaps in Chicago; Rural and Urban Issues; and primary care and behavioral health that will address some of the approaches.

The program will feature a session on designing and implementing population health, and of course there will be some incredible keynotes and small panel discussions. The program includes a discussion with two former HHS Secretaries, Tommy Thompson and Michael Leavitt, and baseball great Darryl Strawberry will discuss addiction, a critical issue we are now facing with the opioid crisis.

If you are committed to learning more about Population Health, this meeting is a must. It’s an event where you can learn from experts covering the full breadth of population health services and have an opportunity to network. Whether you choose to travel to Philadelphia or attend via live webinar, please plan to join us and stop by to say hello. We’d love to hear all about what you’re doing in this exciting space.

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This post is sponsored by the Jefferson College of Population Health

Accountable Care, ACO, Triple Aim

Leavitt Partners Weigh in on Medicare, APMs and Provider Readiness for Pivot

by Gregg A. Masters, MPH

It’s been busy since our re-launch at This Week in Accountable Care primarily due to the heavy lifting support from National ACO co-founders, Andre Berger MD, CEO, and Alex Foxman, MD, President and Chief Medical Officer, respectively.

While I moderate the series, Drs. Berger and Foxman serve as co-hosts and subject matter experts as we engage thought leaders and best-in-class ACO operators in focused conversation around local or regional market challenges including headwinds, tailwinds, lessons learned and emerging best practices.

Recently we’ve chatted with top national talent including: Don Crane, CEO, of CAPG, Hal Sadowy, the IPA Association of America, Jay Parkinson, MD, Founder and CEO of Sherpaa Health and author, consultant and futurist Ian Morrison.

Our all-star line-up continues in October with David Muhlestein, PhD, JD, Chief Research Officer, Leavitt Partners on Tuesday October 3rd, Farzad Mostashari, MD, Founder & CEO of Aledade on October 17th, and the rock-star advocate to fix the Affordable Care Act and former Acting Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Administration (CMS), Andy Slavitt on October 31st.

For our chat with David Muhlestein, PhD, JD, Leavitt Partners, Chief Research Officer you may want to read: Medicare Alternative Payment Models: Not Every Provider Has a Path Forward.

An informative Whitepaper that lays out the range of challenges most health systems, IDNs, physicians whether in groups or not face in the pivot to a value based (alternative payment models – APMs).

From the Whitepaper:

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has shown significant support for the development of Alternative Payment Models (APMs).

CMS’ development and testing of 45 payment models has led to the adoption of similar models by other payers. Initial reports indicate that APMs could be key to producing the health care delivery reform necessary to decrease health care costs and increase delivery quality.

However, these models are only available to select provider types, and some providers, such as emergency physicians and audiologists, have no Medicare APMs in which they can participate. To realize the full benefits of APMs, additional collaboration between CMS leadership and providers is needed to develop new models for providers who do not currently have access to them.

Be sure to join us October 3rd at 5PM Pacific/8PM Eastern for a conversation with David Muhlestein on This Week in Accountable Care with Andre Berger, MD and Alex Foxman, MD. co-founders of National ACO.